ESTOFEX bisher ohne Forecast für heute, deswegen hier die Vorhersage von Severe Weather Europe:
MDT/ENH risks have been issued for northern Italy, southern Switzerland, west-central Austria, west-central Slovenia into northwestern Croatia with threat for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe winds, tornadoes and torrential rainfall with excessive amounts.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/weather-f ... I7-6Eu2uYoAn eastward moving frontal system will begin producing convective activity through early Tuesday morning already while entering the Alpine region from southeastern France. Activity will gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, thanks to rather rapid increase of instability across northern Italy and the Adriatic Sea.
Above-normal Adriatic sea temperatures will provide high dewpoints to support 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE into the Po valley and towards the southern Alpine flank. While favorable left-exit region aloft brings a lot of divergent flow and strong shear.
Thunderstorms should easily become severe, isolated to scaterred supercells are likely to form across the North Italian plains, moving towards the Alps. Storms will bring large to very large hail and severe winds, possibly also tornadoes given the high low-level instability and shear/helicity.
Closer to the Alps, training-cells effect will be possible and could lead to very heavy and torrential rainfall with high rainfall sums locally. More than 150 mm of rainfall will be possible within 24-hour period, across the whole southern Alpine flank. For this reason the MDT risk has been issued, to highlight areas with the most robust threat for dangerous flash floods.
Die Modelle selbst selbst sind sich noch immer uneinig. Von mehreren Unwetterlinien bis zu einem Totalausfall ist alles möglich.