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Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 27 Jun 2022 06:00 to Tue 28 Jun 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 26 Jun 2022 21:40
Forecaster: PUCIK/GROENEMEIJER/GATZEN
A level 3 was issued for S Germany and NW Austria mainly for very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
A level 2 was issued for E Switzerland, NW Austria and SW Bohemia mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
A level 2 was issued for E Spain mainly for large to very large hail.
A level 1 was issued N Spain and S France mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued for Czechia and NE Germany mainly for excessive rainfall, severe wind gusts and large hail.
A level 1 was issued for Denmark and S Scandinavia for excessive rainfall.
A level 1 was issued for SE Norway and adjacent parts of Sweden for heavy rainfall and tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
Mid-tropospheric synoptic-scale situation over Europe is divided into 4 main features: a deep trough over the Atlantic, a low over the Black Sea, a ridge over the central Mediterranean and a high over the Baltics/W Russia. Two short-wave troughs will be associated with the Atlantic trough. The first one will move fast across Iberia towards the Balearic Sea. The second one will move from NW France towards Denmark.
Closer to the surface, a front will stretch from Norway through Denmark into Germany, SE France and E Spain and is forecast to move E during the day. Ahead of the front, mixing ratios between 10 - 13 g/kg are forecast, overlapping with lapse rates reaching 6.5 - 7.5 K/km. This will suffice for non-zero CAPE along practically the whole frontal zone. Together with the low over the Black Sea, the front will be the main driver of the DMC activity throughout this forecast period over Europe.
... Switzerland to SW Czechia and W Austria ...
A classic situation with SW-ly flow across the Alpine range is forecast over the area. High MLCAPE is forecast, exceeding 2000 J/kg, that will overlap with 15 - 20 m/s of 0-3 and 0-6 km bulk shear. The shear will be the strongest just to the north of the Alps as the surface wind turns to northeasterly during the day. High resolution convection-allowing models are confident in several intense storms moving over the area. These storms will likely be supercells , but may transition into a bow-echo later. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are forecast. The resultant convective system will move over northern Austria and Bohemia during the night with threat of excessive rainfall and isolated severe wind gusts.