Heute mal etwas ruhiger - dachte ich zumindest
A level 2 is issued for parts of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria as well as for S Austria for large hail, excessive convective precipitation and severe convective wind gusts, surrounded by a larger level 1 mainly for large hail.
DISCUSSION
... belt from the Italian and Austrian Alps across the W Balkans to Bulgaria and Romania ...
Though all "ingredients" for severe convective storms relax a bit compared to the previous days, a combination of 500-1500 J/kg CAPE and 15-20 m/s deep-layer shear remains in place in the range of the diffuse frontal zone, which slowly transitions from a weak cold front over the Balkans into a weak warm front in the Alpine region. The most plentiful moisture, and therefore the highest CAPE, can be maintained in the S Alpine forelands and in a belt just NE of the main Dinaric crest on the W Balkans, where the westerly mid-level flow is undercut by moist upslope and upvalley circulations.
In the absence of noteworthy synoptic lift, convective initiation is mostly tied to orographic features and expected to happen rather late and scattered at best. However, storms that form can turn multi- or supercellular, and large to isolated very large hail is quite likely once persistent updrafts form.
The level 2 areas may see a higher storm coverage due to hints of synoptic lift from travelling vorticity maxima (over the W Balkans rather early, in Austria towards evening). The majority of convection-resolving models supports this scenario, in which also excessive convective precipitation and severe downbursts become additional hazards. Convective activity could continue into the first half of the night, or even grow upscale into a larger MCS around the bordering regions of Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria.
Quelle: ESTOFEX (
https://www.estofex.org/)
